I think a calm assessment of the battlefield could prove useful.
We only need to look at 2020 announcements for a more educated look at the current proposal.
In July of 2020 PTX proposed a capital raise of $6.5m at 5.5c at a VWAP discount of 15%...It was overwhelmingly supported and oversubscribed.
In fact the original capital raise was so over subscribed that Steven was able to secure a further placement of $7m in August to sophisticated investors...Giving PTX an additional $13.5m and a combined $20m in cash.
In 2020 the PTX assets were significantly weaker, we have since...
* Expanded the PTX-100 trial after multiple responses in PTCL/TCL cancer
* Have increased dosage and expanded the PTX-200 trial after 4 complete responses to date
* Have proven excellent immunogenicity profile of OmniCAR SpyTag/Catcher
* Have secured partnership with Peter McCullam Cancer Hospital for the development of OmniCAR, the partnership additionally included the amalgamation of our 'Stealth Mode Cell Enhancement Therapy Program' from Carina Biotech over to the Peter McCullum facilities
* We have secured a cell manufacturing deal for our OmniCAR program that is moving rapidly towards phase 1 with Q-Gen
* We have secured a deal with 'Thermo Fisher Scientific' to investigate a commercial scale and affordable way of manufacturing cells aimed at Car-T therapies.
So drawing me to 2022...We have a much stronger position to raise $8m from than 2020 so why should we doubt Stevens capacity to successfully raise $6.5m today?
Why hasn't Steven attached options to the raise? My answer is because he knows it will be oversubscribed and does not want the future bloating of the SOI, the drag on sp or the annoying notices he has to release every time someone converts options to fully paid ordinary shares to so they can sell with greater liquidity.
He obviously knows IMO from talking to sophisticated investors that he does not need the allure of options to have this CR more than fully subscribed for.
The conditions of the CR are identical to 2020..Same $5k minimum and $30k max.
Why $5k minimum? Likely prevents traders and weak hands dabbling in the raise, with a $5k minimum serious investors are more likely to participate and less likely to drop shares on market after the issuing of the new shares.
Why $30k max? Because Steven IMO is very confident it will be oversubscribed, as the CR was from 2020 from a much weaker position.
Why has the sp retraced to 17.5c? It's common practice for shareholders to sell on market at higher prices to participate in the CR at a cheaper price than the market is offering, although the volume is indicative that very few have had the opportunity to do so with limited liquidity...There is also no guarantee that investors will receive every share they apply for in the CR...You may only receive half as an example if it is strongly oversubscribed...Would I risk any of my position on those chances over a few dollars? Nope.
Additionally look at the daily market environment...ASX down 2% after DOW and NASDAQ drop 3% & 4% respectively...A market overreaction if you ask me after the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell's address to business that interest rate rises will likely continue in the coming months...Did markets really think that one off pieces of data would convince the Fed that the inflation issue was completely addressed? The Fed is going to need much more data and consistently over a period to make a more conclusive/informed judgement on when interest rates can hold or possibly be relaxed.
Whilst we have not had a formal announcement...Our MD Steven has also stated his intention to take up his entitlements in the CR...That's huge and statistically bodes very well for things to come...I don't believe from memory that Steven participated in the last CR of 2020 so it speaks volumes on the current outlook for PTX.
History shows that Steven made that $7m placement to sophisticates following the original $6.5m offering...How do we know Steven has not got an additional placement to Thermo Fisher or more sophisticated investors in the works? Would lend to his confidence in not attaching options to the CR.
I'd also like to just reiterate...Of course Steven should have dropped good news like Q-Cell and TF before any CR...What kind of CEO would do a CR before news like that? Knowing he would have to raise at a significant discount to the price after such market releases and adding far more SOI than he has to? The horse follows the cart...Also it's only logical because without the Q-Gen deal and increase in scope of activities and cost...I'd personally be asking why are we raising $8m when we still have $14m in the bank and a quarterly expenditure of about $1.2m on average? Now I know why...Because CAR-T manufacturing and therapies are bloody expensive and if we are going to move OmniCAR into 'phase 1' Q-Gen are not going to do it for free...The average CAR-T therapy costs $500k per round so you can imagine the associated trial costs and fee's of Q-Gen.
All is good in the hood...When the sp is on it's way up all we hear is Christmas lists and charts to the moon on threads...Equally when its retreating it's all doom and gloom...Shows emotions are the winner rather than educated assessments.
Cool, calm and collected people...If your going to INVEST as opposed to trading biotech at this end of the market than you had better learn to handle the heat in the kitchen because there will be hot days.
The FA is looking great, the data very encouraging...Let's just get through this CR so we can really put the rubber to the road because the pipeline is chock-a-block for the foreseeable future and Steven is rightfully educating the market and giving everyone the chance to participate from a more informed baseline thanks to his proactive presentations.
I'm more excited than ever...Nothing is a given so again, we must manage expectations and that's why we have a hugely diversified portfolio...To manage said risks...But we have never been in a stronger position and I wouldn't be surprised if the sp continues to kick off after the completion of the CR.
(20min delay)
