Hi LongTonyI brought most of my BSE shares in Jan 2016 at under...

Hi LongTony

I brought most of my BSE shares in Jan 2016 at under 4 cents a share. I also brought in the capital raise in March 2016 at 6 cents, capital raise in Dec 2017 at 0.255 cents and in March 2019 at around 30 cents following release of the feasibility study for Toliara. These shares are held in my super fund in the pension phase. I also had some BSE shares outside my super fund originally acquired at around 35 cents in approx 2014, and then subsequently topped up over time. So over time, my BSE holding was significant and an important factor in funding my retirement.

I continue to think Toliara is a great project. Mining projects with a very long life and low cost make companies. This is what has made BHP today for example.

In terms of funding, I think Base needs to stop paying dividends. If they don't, then funding will become a major issue. I prefer BSE to retain 100% of Toliara because it is such a great project. I think any JV partner will buy into Toliara at a bargain basement price. As time goes by, BSE negotiating power on price is, I think, diminishing.

The only reason I have sold is because the African Govts are now posing a significant risk and there is no end in sight. The Kenyan Govt continues to delay issuing exploration permits and community issues continue to delay exploration drilling. The Kenyan Govt doesn't seem to realise the party will be ending in less than 2 years unless BSE finds a new resource that can be commercially mined (which is, I think, now unlikely).

The Madagascan Govt has been stuffing BSE around since the suspension in Nov 2019. That is for over 3 years to decide what the royalty rate is to apply to the project. I originally thought that the Toliara project would be built while BSE was receiving significant cash flow from Kwale. This is now not the case. Toliara will not be a producing mine until 2026 at the earliest and this could easy become 2027 or 2028 with continued delays.

I have done very well out of BSE but for me, as 2ic says, "riding down to the valley of death" is not a good place to be. I think the risk/reward balance has tipped a bit far for me to be a holder of BSE at this point in time . However, I believe Toliara will be a great project one day and my preference is buy back in once some of today's uncertainties are removed.