Ann: Presentation - Actioning the Build Own Operate Strategy, page-11

OK hows this for some very, very rough estimations.

~$8M rev & ~$1.6M GM for build
~$0.2M rev & ~$0.1M GM per annum maintain
Operating income - Depends on financing, but x% of $1.2M pa
Looking at 4C and Annual Report, Id estimate fixed overheads at ~$4M pa, with the rest being project labour & product costs.

Assume they can build 20 in the next 5 years.
$1.6M x 20 = $32M build GM
$0.1M x 20 = $2M pa maintain GM, assume even ramp = $5M over 5 years
Assume they get 25% of ongoing revenue = $6M pa = $30M over 5 years
Total GM = $67M
Total Overheads = $5M x 5 = $25M
Total EBITDA = $42M over 5 years
NPAT ~$30M
Plus $7.4M franking credits

Current MC $13M

Just not 100% sure on costs for them to get the ongoing revenue. Assuming it would be debt funded, so great while debt is cheap.

But like most infrastructure plays, its the long term game that counts! Once you have 20 running, 20 sites give ~$8Mpa GM for the next 30 years.

So yeah, cant see this being a $100M business anytime soon, but a bag each year from here might be entirely doable.... Especially if they can unleash those franking credits!

Now obviously this is all very back of the envelope stuff, but anyone see any major holes or things Im missing?