OK hows this for some very, very rough estimations.
~$8M rev & ~$1.6M GM for build ~$0.2M rev & ~$0.1M GM per annum maintain Operating income - Depends on financing, but x% of $1.2M pa Looking at 4C and Annual Report, Id estimate fixed overheads at ~$4M pa, with the rest being project labour & product costs.
Assume they can build 20 in the next 5 years. $1.6M x 20 = $32M build GM $0.1M x 20 = $2M pa maintain GM, assume even ramp = $5M over 5 years Assume they get 25% of ongoing revenue = $6M pa = $30M over 5 years Total GM = $67M Total Overheads = $5M x 5 = $25M Total EBITDA = $42M over 5 years NPAT ~$30M Plus $7.4M franking credits
Current MC $13M
Just not 100% sure on costs for them to get the ongoing revenue. Assuming it would be debt funded, so great while debt is cheap.
But like most infrastructure plays, its the long term game that counts! Once you have 20 running, 20 sites give ~$8Mpa GM for the next 30 years.
So yeah, cant see this being a $100M business anytime soon, but a bag each year from here might be entirely doable.... Especially if they can unleash those franking credits!
Now obviously this is all very back of the envelope stuff, but anyone see any major holes or things Im missing?
MPR Price at posting:
6.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)