I do agree with all the comments above regarding the slides and the needs to condense the information and hire a marketing firm to do it properly. The difference between GLN presentations and other stocks I hold that are roughly in the same MC as GLN is staggering. A few interesting points from JP's presentation however:
* The confidence in HMW project has definitely increased. From "we are hoping to be a producer in Argentina" to "we will be producing lithium in two years' time" was a big opening line/statement. The recent appointments of Claudia and Juan Carlos point towards that direction too.
* I like the staggered approach for production. It's not like spodumene or mining in general where you can only start producing when the mine is constructed. The intention here is to fill the ponds as they are being constructed, so realistically by the time you have built enough pounds for the 4KTPA stage 1/pilot plant, the first ponds will already have chloride ready to go. Hence the short timeframe and the "we will be generating revenue in two years".
* They are talking to a few parties for funding. Again, what's not too like about what JP said.. The Capex for the 4KTPA pilot plant will be under 100M and I understand they are already talking to parties regarding pre payments. That means we could be generating cash in two years time with a CAPEX under 100M. That would be very minimal dilution for shareholders, especially if pre payment for offtakes can be done. Then I would assume the cashflow that we generate from the 4KTPA pilot plant will help for the 20KTPA+ construction. This along with further prepayment for offtakes and at that stage with cash already being generated, debt funding should also be easier. In the current environment with interest rates rising, etc finance will be difficult to secure for a lot of the projects. Talking about VUL, EUR, LKE, etc all these companies have huge CAPEX for stage 1 only and a lot of these projects will probably never see the light..
* Lots of talks about ESG in Argentina currently and impact of the lithium projects on the environment. JP confirmed the chloride strategy doesn't require much fresh water, fresh water would only be required on camp for day to day usage..
* Greenbushes results due in May/June. My taking was that the drilling so far hasn't been successful. Otherwise, they would have announced something already but they have more drilling to do. I was really taking Greenbushes as the cherry on the cake and would be happy to see the focus solely on HMW and Candelas.
* Overall, a good presentation I found and the project is definitely going in the right direction. However, I feel the same as many of us, it is really difficult for the non experts (even for me despite being invested for over 5 years) to understand the strategy and still a lot of confusion about what's the plan after selling chloride, are we gonna produce Carbonate, are we solely gonna sell chloride out of HMW and the cash will allow the development of Candelas as lithium carbonate, etc? I hope this clears up in the DFS but I'm very concerned it will show only the chloride strategy.. The chloride strategy is the right one IMO to generate early cashflow but the NPV will decrease significantly (along with Capex and Opex) and the non-experts will only see the drop in NPV and I feel like our SP will decrease accordingly when DFS is released..
The project is right, the location is right, the people that are coming onboard are top notch but we really need someone new to take it to the new level IMO. I love JP and his enthusiasm and what he has done to take the project that far, but it wouldn't hurt to get advice on how to transmit the message in a clearer/simpler way for the non-experts.
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