Okie dokie - mate I suggest you have a look at these posts, I think myself and other posters have mentioned this before a couple of times in relation to price. It's easy to compare headline prices, NPV's & IRRs but if you are really interested in doing a comparison (which is difficult), you need to account for all the factors:
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/re...4107820/page-66?post_id=32145406#.WtmnOS6uzX4
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/pe...4127020/page-31?post_id=32466649#.WtmqVy6uzX4
This is not to knock CLQ as I have a position in them as well (much smaller than ARL) -
CLQ since their PFS have indicated that their BFS will come with a much larger CAPEX cost than their PFS. The latest estimates are higher than $1B (Nov'17 Technical Report is when they listed on the TSX and increased their CAPEX from their initial PFS level)- fyi their update from Feb warning of higher costs.
http://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/CLQ/01954321.pdf
Obviously all these CAPEX cost increases will impact the NPV negatively
CLQ's technology is also proprietary which potentially introduces a certain element of additional risk vs standard 5th Gen HPAL. It has the potential to operate at a lower costs if successful however it is not without risk imo. That said all going well they should be the first to production and enjoy higher prices earlier.
Anyway getting back to ARL - they are looking to increase throughput to 2.25Mtpa by reducing the residence time of their feed in the process(no increase in CAPEX)- this will go straight to the bottom line and have a significantly positive impact to the NPV. There are a few other things in the presentation that should also provide significant upside to the NPV.
Now you mention BHP increasing Co production - which assets are they looking at increasing Co production from and how much do you think they will be producing from these assets? They will need to be looking at acquisitions/JV's to increase their Co output in any sizable way.
Although their potash venture isn't one of their success stories to date, however this is just to illustrate that in comparison ARL's CAPEX numbers are a fraction of what they are/were looking to spend and would provide a very long life/low cost asset that they are looking for.
http://www.mining.com/bhp-speed-jansen-development-potash-demand-double-2040/
(20min delay)