BGA is assuming that commodity prices remain subdued for FY 24. It is NOT banking on an improvement, so almost no contribution from the bulk commodity business in FY 24. Also $20 million ($25 million?) in restructuring benefits. (Sorry, I didn't hear well).
BGA has been surprised that rationalisation hasn't occurred previously, but with smaller competitors, it's now happening (a bit). It occurs slower than one expects but it is likely within a year, to some degree. BGA doesn't want industry upheaval as occurred in FY 14- FY 16.
BGA needs to make hard decisions re its commodity infrastructure.
Re unallocated overheads, in FY 22 it was $20 million, in 1H 23, it was likely to translate to $30 million annually but it didn't become true as BGA did not generally pay staff bonuses.. The commodity 'crash' was more than expected, so bonuses were 'reversed'. In FY24, it may be (the CFO implied) about $20 million.
In 2H 23, the branded business basically doubled compared to IH 23. An analyst said milk costs are lower in 1H given 'spring flush' of production, but the Chairman said that be careful given milk is destined for various branded BGA businesses, and it's typically priced 'flat'.
Inventory value (the price part) was driven up as the farm gate milk price rose 30 per cent. An analyst said this should '[unwind' in FY 24 given commodity prices have decreased. The line cut so I did not hear the CFO's response.
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