@wassaI actually like that they have paused the 2 smaller mines...

@wassa
I actually like that they have paused the 2 smaller mines for FY23.

The days of chasing ounces over cash flow is hopefully behind them.
FY23 will be a year of unwinding the value from their OP stockpiles that they've been accumulating over FY22.
By my calculations the Murchison region has roughly 1.05 million tons of stockpiled ore at a grade of 1.35gt (400,00 tons @ 1.6gt, 650,000 @ 1.2gt).

A lot is riding on their 3 big mines (Big Bell, Paddys and Bluebird) continuing to take up the slack.
They should be able to bump up tons at all 3 by utilizing the crews reserved for Fender and Comet.

Operationally all 3 mines are already showing positive momentum.
WGX should comfortably hit the top end of production guidance even if there is only a marginal improvement in the larger mines production levels for FY23


Murchison Plant throughput 2.8 - 3.2mtpa ((3mtpa mid point))
FY23
Tons Mined
Big Bell 1.1mtpa
Paddys Flat 700,000 tpa
Bluebird 350,000 tpa

UG Ore 2.15mtpa (2.8gt)
Stockpiles 850,000tpa (1.35gt)

UG Ounces at 90% Recovery = 174,212oz
Stockpiled Ounces at 90% Recovery = 33,207
Total ounces produced Murchison based on 3,000,000 tons processed at 90% = 207,419oz

Add 65,000oz from Fortnum and they should comfortably beat guidance.
Total 272,500 ounces estimate for FY23.

Here's where it get's interesting Wassa.

FY22
Actual
Total Ore mined = 3,103,045t
Ounces mined = 221,148oz
Mining costs per ounce for FY22 at $1,158 per recoverable ounce.

That's a total cost of mining for FY22 (221,148oz x $1,158) = $256,089,384

FY23
Estimates
Total Ore mined = 2,150,000t
Ounces mined = 174,212oz
Mining costs per ounce for FY23 at $1,158 + 10% = $1,273 per recoverable ounce.

That's a total cost of mining for FY23 (174,212oz x $1,273) = $221,771,876


FY 22 $256,089,384 - FY23 $221,771,876
note (FY23 I'm also factoring in a further 10% rise in mining costs YoY)
Estimated Mining cost saving YoY =$34,317,508






FY22
Growth Capital $103,000,000



FY 23
Growth Capital estimated at $60 million
I'm also factoring in an increase of 25% for growth capex blowout
60 + 25% = $75,000,000

Growth Capex FY22 $103,000,000 - Growth Capex FY23 $75,000,000
Total Growth Capex savings YoY = $28,000,000

Total estimated cost savings YoY = $62,317,508

NOTE
I'm only showing the reasons why I've been scaling into a position on WGX.
This is not investment advice and should not be taken as such.
Everyone should do their own due diligence before making their own investment decisions.

GLTAH