It’s incredible how asleep the market is to PAN’s valuation when digesting the calculations from the report and using its peers for comparison. PAN is simply undervalued at current levels by about 50% using July’s 2021 spot price and even more using today’s spot price.
Pre-Tax NPV using spot price as at July 2021 represents $644 million from pre-tax mine cash flow of $1,071 billion over the life of the mine which is noted as 12 years.
Using the NPV (Dated July 2021) to value the business, the market capitalisation should represent $644 million or about $0.32 per share.
If we use today’s spot price (about 20k per tonne) to value the business, the share price would even be higher.
As I understand based on the calculators, for every 20% move up in the Nickel price using (July’s spot), this will add about $324 million to the NPV over the said mine life or closer to $1 billion NPV or about $0.50 per share. (This would equal spot at $23,900 per tonne).
The above valuations do not factor any premiums that sit on top of the NPV. I.e WSA, IGO are valued way higher than their current NPV’s.
The market could simply be waiting for confirmation of first shipment (revenue) before they re-rate the business - First shipment revenue estimated at $18 to $20 million.
No brainer for me, I have accumulated another 1.5 million shares yesterday at $0.21
Marie
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