Unfortunately, calling out management BS and their fake...

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2ic

5,566 Posts.

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26/02/24

12:56

Post #: 72597145
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Originally posted by marcus A: ↑

Hi @2ic,

Thanks for the your in-depth analysis of this announcement, thorough and critical as usual which saves us lazy bastards having to do the hard yards ourselves!

After reading your posts and others here and doing a little DYOR myself I concur with your BS call on this one. As seems to be the case with many a RE explorer/developer, HAS has seen fit to omit such critical details as the actual product pricing assumed and the cost of tolling, and only presents us with a few hints and scant details that support their highly speculative financial metrecies, which despite your valiant attempt to reverse engineer is so opaque that it could never pass a smell or pub test, let alone a competent resource analyst doing financial due diligence.

For me there are a couple of other factors that take the current Yangi project from unlikely to near impossible to proceed in the proposed form;

Firstly tolling RE's in the PRC. According to noted RE pundit Thomas Krümmer in the latest 'The Rare Earth Observer'; "This practise of tolling or so-called “export processing” has been illegal in China for a long time already (since 1998). We have not heard of any change of heart from Beijing." Then there are the revised Yangibana financial metrics;

• 61% increase in post-tax NPV11 to $865 million
• 14% increase in post-tax IRR to 31.28%
• 82% increase in life of mine cashflow to $3,345 million
• Capital payback period reduced by 23% to 3.4 years

Supposedly all from an improved price received for just 10ktpa of concentrate, which is only 27% of the forecast output 37ktpa moncon @ 27%TREO. Just imagine the returns if HAS could get all their moncon tolled to separate RE oxides in China...bugger that, why don't all current RE producers just get their RE conc.s tolled in China...If this is the case I don't know why LYC or ILU are bothering to build new RE processing facilities here, obviously Amanda L. and Tom O. are just idiots!

Let alone the practice of ignoring PRC import duties of 5% and RE product VAT of 13% when estimating pricing...I could go on but I have better things to do.

GLTAH but I don't like your odds, so DYOR etc...

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Unfortunately, calling out management BS and their fake outcomes, unsupported by verification or reality, for the benefit of investors reading HC, is seen as flaming baiting shareholders when it is actually against management, and flaming management is actually both deserved and required to focus readers on reality of their investment...

Do the crime you do the time... absolutely, though crime is very much in eye of the beholder it seems.

HAS Price at posting: 61.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
7 Upvote

1 Great analysis

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