Can't believe people are still believing and pushing that old...

Can't believe people are still believing and pushing that old "$150 million cornerstone investment from Andrew Forrest’s private company, Wyloo Metals" bait and switch It wasn't so much bait and switch as deliberately misleading, suckering in a $100M CR for a loan with an option to convert that loan to shares at $5.50 instead of being repaid cash. That investment is now certainly loan, and it will be interesting to see how Twig gets his money back, ~$225M in 1.5 years time.

Lew played brokers like a fiddle for the $100M, but that will be gone long before mid-2025 imo and the $150M loan for NEO shares (now worth $75M) will come home to roost. HAS is looking at a shortfall of ~$150M to repay Wyloo, maybe only $125M if Twig agrees to accept NEO shares above spot value to be sure he gets control of them (ie a premium for 20% block). Wyloo has security over HAS ownership of Yangibana and all the investments to date, so HAS must raise $125M on market, or do a deal with Wyloo to convert $125M debt at a price they are happy. The question holders should be asking is what share price will HAS trade in 18 months' time cum-raise $125M, and/or what percentage ownership will Twig leave for HAS shareholders in a debt-shares conversion deal? (eg Wyloo converts $125M at $1, $0.75, $0.25 etc).

As mid 2025 draws nearer, we get a clearer picture of the REO market/prices and where Yangi stands in the Darwinist pecking order.

Consumers ex-China are turning to hybrids (rightly imo) to avoid range anxiety, minimise cost, fuel consumption, CO2 emissions and maximise EV range where most people drive short battery only trips 90% of the time. China will probably reduce RE-production quotas to stabilise and raise the price, but nowhere near enough in a weak demand environment imo to drive prices anywhere near where Yangi needs them.

This latest fixed price tolling deal to make Yangi more financially attractive, if it ever happens, plays into China's hands. It would continue feeding China's dominance, REO oversupply, and help guarantee low RE-price environment that could cripple Australia's genuine 'competitive' producers like LYC and ILU. Tony Rovira of Azure litium fame has predicted the lithium industry will eventually mirror iron ore to become the domain of large companies and megamines. That is exactly how I see rare earths going... the best RE deposits are huge compared to 10 or even 20 year demand projections.

There is an over-supply of RE globally, and the west bringing on more expansions, new projects and eventually some downstream processing supply is only going to exacerbate price problems. Fact is, mining RE ore is a lot easier and cheaper than developing downstream processing. The west needs to support a modest number of large, low-cost champions for critical supply security, not throw money at everyone wants a ribbon. LYC, Mountain Pass, ILU min sands, MEI and other ionic clays etc. China is merging their industry into virtually two majors (China Rare Earth Group and China Northern Rare Earth High-Tech). Western subsidies as required are best concentrated in a few dominant players with size, technology, market discipline and pricing control... as it works best for China. Welcome to the RE-Oligopoly...

This will take some years to play out, mean time HAS needs a government grant by mid-2025 or their build "the next rare earth mine" crash or crash through approach will be the former. They are down to $40M cash with >$10M Acc Payable I'd think, cooking at ~$10M per quarter without spending more plant and equipment beyond what the already have committed to and underway. The day they stop front end FEED design etc is the day they admit the new mine isn;t going to get built, so they have to keep moving forward. They will be out of cash before end CY24 imo, certainly before mid-25. Will the Oz government get guilted into 'saving' the Yangi mine construction from collapse with a large handout, or will they cut their losses before NAIF makes another $250M blunder (KLL, STA... cough, cough)?

Walk away now is my advice, and focus on ILU who already has over $1B of our taxpayer dollars and will be drowning not waving if prices do not improve by 2026. ILU and LYC have major new supply coming on next couple of years and there isn;t the demand for it (LYC currently holding back sales and stockpiling). Not just the nickel and lithium miners, all the ducks are quacking and we simply can't subsidise them all into a 'non-critical' over-supply. The rare earth market is tiny compared to nickel and lithium... it simply isn;t supply constrained, just price and profits constrained with ample opportunity for EVs to substitute non-RE-perm magnets out of the supply chain in very short order (problem solved).

So what you ask, most of this I've written before and it's only my opinion. HAS says "Yangibana Project will be one of the highest margin producers globally once in production – first quartile on global margin curve as assessed by CRU"... but there is only two Western producers outside of China (Mt Weld and Moutain Pass), and they with all the Chinese mines and Asian ionic clay producers are making bank if not big profits... what is this global margin curve you speak of? Must be the global lies, damn lies and project feasibility studies curve As usual, what's really going on is harder to pick than a broken nose, but I managed to painfully pick it apart the sizzle none the less and the sausage still looks like a turd...

Lots to unpack in this table. First pass only, might have some mistakes but I'm fairly confident it's accurate on the assumption 17 years at avg 34.5kt mon-con avg and all calculations done on LOM averages not actual mine schedule obviously. Feel free to work it out or wait until I find time to write it up...

GLTAH