Having followed SBM for a number of years now, I'm very much...

Having followed SBM for a number of years now, I'm very much thinking that my loyalty to this organisation (based on previous performance) is clouding my judgment.

If I wasn't neck deep in SBM shares, would I buy now? Nope. Diluted equity, resulting from a poor acquisition (which lead to zero tangible rise in market capitalisation), increasingly marginal production at Gwalia and seemingly endless rising costs across other operations ......now a backdrop of falling tide gold prices.....

Revenue is capped unless there is a reversal in the price of gold and I'm struggling to see what that might be. Even if there is a reasonable bump in the post-pandemic recovery, BitCoin seems to be creeping into the "safe haven" space and might even become the better inflation hedge if monetary policy gets out of whack. Maybe cashed up Indians and improved consumer sentiment could see a rise in jewelry sales, but there's plenty of spare capacity in the system as a result of the last 12 months of higher gold prices and new mines online.

When the tide goes out, you get to see who has been swimming naked. SBM needs to demonstrate it can outperform its peers or we will be back down to $1.50 before June.