Ann: Presentation on December 2020 Half Year Report and webcast, page-9

$1.50/share is possible if the AUD keeps rising relative to the USD while the USD POG keeps falling. But in fact all goldies will get cheaper under those circumstances.

I sold 75% of my SBM holding over recent weeks out of those concerns, plus the view (as I have said before) that mining input costs are likely to rise - a headwind for all Oz based goldies whereas labour and many input costs since 2013 were steady of falling up to the recent re-start of our mining boom and COVID related cost pressures.

People need to learn to trade the mining shares due to their high volatility and uncertainty about the direction of the commodity price in which they operate. Having plenty of cash on the sidelines helps one sleep a lot easier at night and ensures we can take advantage of future trading opportunities. Listening to the shills about all the future gains to be had is pretty dangerous.

I feel comfortable that over time SBM will recover to the $2.50-$3.50 level one fine day so long as Jetson can execute on his 4-5 year plan (a bit of an if, given it depends on getting various govt approvals in PNG and Canada).

I know the half year report looked bad, and I expected it alone to lead to a lower share price. However, its clear from the report that there should be a substantial operational improvement at Gwalia in the second half of FY2021 (ie is over the next 6 months) resulting in more production/lower costs/higher revenue (at current gold price)/higher profitability.

In the short/medium term my main concern with the Oz based goldies is that rising US Treasury interest rates without significant concurrent reported inflation combined with say the AUD lifting to 85 cents against the USD will lead to a tot more pain for goldie Hodlers, especially during a roaring sharemarket that is attracting capital from other asset classes. Yield on the US 10 year Treasuries has gone from around 0.55% since last August to 1.3% and this has been detrimental to the USD POG. It has been suggested by one analyst with a good track record that the yield could rise to around 1.8-1.9% in 2021. This would suggest further downside to the gold price.

Good luck to all goldiebugs.

I am waiting to purchase more goldies with my cash stash when the time is about right, possibly in mid year.

loki (Is that light I see at the end of the tunnel an oncoming fright train?)