Isn't the futures always going to be limited by the physical in the long term?
Back in April, we saw one party on the LME take out a long position in May futures that represented more than 40% of open interest. Reporting it as a potential squeeze. See article.
Therefore, I'm not sure if it is comforting to all other purchasers, knowing that one party can take out a large chuck of the market in a snap.
It appears to me that getting your hands on the physical (buying into mining projects) is going to be a better long term tool to manage this market than its futures. It maybe because of the fact that tin solder has a 6 month shelf life and purchasers need to keep buying the fresh stuff which can't sit around for long periods, or it could be the supply issues in Indonesia, Myanmar, Congo and other macroeconomic factors that may see “extreme increases” in the second half of the year.
Anyhow, I just a thought that 'solder expiring' adds another level of complexity. Especially, if soldering further increases in demand.
AIMO, DYOR GLTA(patient)H
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