If irc most respected analysts were forecasting a long term LCE price of about US$25k at the time our DFS 1 came out. Ours came in a bit over 10% higher, I noticed and thought it odd, but hey who I am I to query experts on long term forecasts ?
Nonetheless, LCE prices have to swing up from here, otherwise there will not be any new sources of lithium brought to market, in fact world supply will reduce from where it was in 2023 if LCE prices don’t go up.
JP’s comment wasn’t meant to be a financial study, he was anecdotally highlighting the fact the Galan is a low cost producer and even at current prices able to make a profit, hence going forward even bigger profits will be available as the market swings up. How much ? No one knows. The critical factor seems to be just getting through the next 12 months and then hopefully being in a better position, although financing stage 2 of US$360m (iirc) looms as another hurdle for 2025 similiar to this one.
One thing JP did say that seemed interesting was the binding deal with glencore stage 1 went like - we sell glencore the licl at spot price, glencore process the licl into LCE in Argentina then move it on, at which point an adjustment to the sale price is made based on the spot LCE price at that time.
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