I can give a more detailed reply tomorrow (am away from my computer), although I note again a very healthy level of skepticism towards these analyst price forecasts, something conspicuously absent when all the forecasts were much higher than they are today. Funny how that happens!
For the record, in the context of securing capex funding, it doesn’t matter what you, or I, or anyone else on these threads thinks of WoodMac’s revised analysis (it clearly has some faults, namely bearish price assumptions married up to bullish new supply assumptions; both can’t be true).
What matters is that Liontown’s lending syndicate took WoodMac seriously. This is the point. Seems like other lenders will think the same way. If lenders are re-cutting their models based on a report that suggests lithium spodumene will remain ‘depressed’ for the next five years, doesn’t matter what we think of it, logic suggests this won’t be an isolated case. That’s why one has to more carefully consider the GLN DFS1 sensitivity analysis and re-think what the HMW NPV(10?) figure looks like, using a much lower price assumption.
(20min delay)