This hasbeen a pretty maligned story as the Aus market just isn’t versed in heap leach.But I think at current metal prices its pretty hard not to take a look at thisagain.
2023 PEA had 1.6Moz inventory from a 1.8Moz resource. Resource been expanded to2Moz and likely some upwards revision in production inventory too for the PFS.
PEA had anNPV of A$388m at $2,665 and A$1,080 at $3,500. That means at spot that expandsto something like A$2.5bn pre-tax NPV7.
Now we needto consider what might have changed since the PEA in 2023.
Capex wasestimated at $300m. This might have increased to A$350m but probably shouldn’thave gone much beyond that.
In terms ofopex they used mining costs of A$4.50/t given large scale mining. AAR at asimilar time used A$4.69/t and has recently stated that quotes are coming in ator below that level. So that is over half STN opex that shouldn’t move.Processing costs might move a little bit but not dramatically.
Somethingthat I think is worth considering is recoveries. PEA used 75%. We have recentlypublished data below
Edit: Picture wouldn't paste but recent met work shows 88% recovery at a 4mm crush.
Now thereason I think this is interesting is because the price of gold has expanded 2xsince they did the PEA.
If we wereto go from an 8mm crush to a 4mm crush that adds 10% to recoveries. This worksout to about 15-16koz per annum extra recovered. Or $75-80m of extra revenue.At PEA prices this was $37-40m of revenue. I am not sure what the extra costsare per tonne for the additional grind but if you assume it was line ball oncosts at PEA prices then that would mean an extra $40m FCF per annum at spotprices. I think it would be even more than this. Given processing costs ofaround $10/t I am guessing the extra grind might be $1-2/t or $10-20m per annumon 10Mtpa production. If they can add an extra $600m of undiscounted FCF justby moving the recovery needle that is pretty handy.
All in all chance to see post tax NPV in theA$1.5-2bn mark at spot prices. Given its trading at a MC of $130m (with $35mcash) this is <0.1x NAV. Looks too cheap even if misunderstood. 
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