Hey @speculator101Thanks for sharing your thoughts mate.Very...

Hey @speculator101

Thanks for sharing your thoughts mate.
Very interesting take.

I'm interested to know why you think there will be another 10-million-dollar drawdown next quarter?

I was expecting neutral to a small profit for the reasons below:




This is what I'm estimating



Cash Drawdown Sept Q $31,000,000

Dec Q est. 10.5 million reduction on money spent for growth capex and exploration.

Cash Drawdown running total Dec Q $20.5 million

Sept Q AISC 141,000,000
Dec Q AISC approx $1,980 * 65,000 = $128,700,000
Saving est. $12,300,000

Cash Drawdown running total Dec Q $8.2 million

Hedge book price per ounce increase $30
65,000 * $30 $2,000,000
Saving est. $2,000,000

Cash Drawdown running total Dec Q $6.2 million

Sustaining cost reduction with 3 mines mothballed Sept Q (South Emu, Comet, Fender)


Sept Q Sustaining CAPEX 13 million
Dec Q Sustaining CAPEX 8 million
Savings est. 5 million

Cash Drawdown running total Dec Q 1.2 million

Other improvements likely to positively effect Dec Q cashflow


1. Increased monetization of stockpiles with SET and COMET paused (will negatively affect Murchison AISC).



2. Big Bell expected to be trending towards more ounces and increasing grade QoQ



3. Bluebird UG tonnage expected to trend higher QoQ



4. Bluebird Mill throughput expected to continue improving throughout FY23 (as you mentioned still miles below nameplate)


5. Staff rationalization over Sept Q (redundancy payouts etc)

6. Fortnum mill throughput expected to improve.



Obviously things like gold price and costs moderating will have the largest impact.

I'm hoping that mining costs will continue to trend lower into Q3 as grades and mining efficiencies are improved. The mine plan should be systematically optimized by then using all the collated infill drilling data from the big 4 mines.