TLG 8.62% 53.0¢ talga group ltd

"How much dilution of the share price are we expecting with the...

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  1. 410 Posts.
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    "How much dilution of the share price are we expecting with the Joint Venture with Mitsui and LKAB?"

    I've thought a fair bit about this and still don't have the foggiest. There are too many variables. It should go without saying that the more money we ask LKAB/Mitsui to contribute, the more equity they will expect in return. So, anything we can do to reduce the capital ask will help us to retain more equity. With that said, I'll share what I think the variables are:

    LKAB
    • Talga owns several promising non-graphite deposits. In the presentation, divesting these assets is labeled as a "next step". It seems likely that they will be included as part of the deal to LKAB in exchange for LKAB contributing more capital and taking less equity.

    • Talga's graphite mine and refinery were recently broken into separate subsidiaries of the larger company. It's possible this was done so that LKAB only receives equity in the mining company and not in the refinery.


    Mitsui
    • It is unclear whether Mitsui would partner in only the refinery or both the mine and the refinery. On the one hand, Mitsui a history of partnering with iron miners in Oz, so they have some experience in that space. On the other hand, it's questionable whether they bring anything to the table (on the mining side) that LKAB doesn't already cover.

    General
    • Talga should be able to access subsidies from the E.U.'s "Just Transition" Fund, but tough to guess how big those will be

    • Talga should be able to access cheap debt via private green funds, but no idea how much debt MT wants to take on
 
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