I think people are reading way too much into body language from a random presentation. For me, the relevant takeaways from the presentation are:
- MT currently expects a JV to be in place by the end of November.
- He continues to highlight LKAB and Mitsu, suggesting that not only are those the partners he wants, but that he expects a deal. If he didn't think a deal was likely, he'd be pivoting to highlight other parties instead.
- Mentioning he's negotiating with other parties is a standard negotiating tactic. It's like a car salesman telling you he's got another buyer on deck or a real-estate agent telling you she's got other offers. A good negotiator will always say they're in talks with other parties, whether they are or not.
Without reading into any body language or anything from this presentation, I also know these things:
- Any JV agreement is likely to be received well by the market, but a better deal will result in significantly higher returns - especially over longer time horizons
- The JV negotiation is on the short list of the most important events in Talga's history. A couple extra percentage points of equity could be worth hundreds of millions in market cap down the line. Mark is the largest shareholder and has put ten years of his life into this. I guarantee you he is feeling the pressure.
- These negotiations are never easy. Mitsui didn't become a Fortune 200 (Global) company by giving away money. I'm certain they are driving a hard bargain and looking to extract maximum equity. They know they're the whale, and I'm sure they're making MT feel the weight of that too.
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