Ann: Presentation - Strategic Partnership and Long Term Funding, page-325

According to the International Energy Agency....

Almost 14 million new electric cars1 were registered globally in 2023, bringing their total number on the roads to 40 million, closely tracking the sales forecast from the 2023 edition of the Global EV Outlook (GEVO-2023). Electric car sales in 2023 were 3.5 million higher than in 2022, a 35% year-on-year increase. This is more than six times higher than in 2018, just 5 years earlier. In 2023, there were over 250 000 new registrations per week, which is more than the annual total in 2013, ten years earlier. Electric cars accounted for around 18% of all cars sold in 2023, up from 14% in 2022 and only 2% 5 years earlier, in 2018. These trends indicate that growth remains robust as electric car markets mature. Battery electric cars accounted for 70% of the electric car stock in 2023....Electric car sales remained strong in the first quarter of 2024, surpassing those of the same period in 2023 by around 25% to reach more than 3 million.
Trends in electric cars – Global EV Outlook 2024 – Analysis - IEA

So, to put that into perspective, 2018 - 2%, 2022 - 14%, 2023 - 18% EV sales growth compared to all vehicle sales is an incredible growth. At this amount however, EVs are still about 2-4% of vehicles globally. We have so far to go. Will it be a nice linear or hockey stick curve that analysists love to draw. Of course not. Geopolitics, new product launches, failing auto companies, etc... are going to make this a bumpy ride, but the overall trend will continue. So, people talking about oversupply of materials, recycling etc... will dampen future demand for Li just don't understand the math. The EV technology is superior (for its performance, recycling ability, and energy efficiency), and it is on a cost reduction curve that will make ICE a poor economic choice in the future.

As I said, it will be a bumpy ride, and it will not be uniform across the world. US and EU I expect their rate of EV sales to slow as their significant increase in Chinese import tariffs (and I am not saying they are wrong or right by doing it) will cut them off from highly cost competitive models. It will also keep their local manufacturers margins higher, and prices to customers. What this will mean is that other countries that don't have these barriers, such as Australia, will receive more than their fair share of Chinese EV imports. It will also mean other car companies trying to compete (Tesla, Kia, Hyundai, etc...) will have to drop their prices also, and we are already seeing this in 2024.

So, expect EV sales globally to still increase year on year, but the rate of increase will vary significantly between countries with import tariff barriers and those without.