LRV larvotto resources limited

Ann: Presentation - Sydney Mining Club, page-43

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    This slide is the same as that contained in the 121 Mining presentation of 3/2/25. My takeaway here is that the DFS will likely show antimony and gold at USD 2,750 per ounce and USD 41,000 per tonne as the baseline values. AUD / USD is shown at 63 cents.

    DFS will likely see an upgrade the resource IF the cut-off grades are improved with the benefit of higher commodity price assumptions.

    Slide 3 is interesting and shows:

    ■ Supply 7% of world's antimony requirements from 2026.

    ■ NPV is $1.1B, Cashflow is $1.7B PFS capex is $75m & payback is 7 months.

    ■ Only antimony mine to come online in next 4 years.

    ■ Record prices for gold (USD 3,100) and antimony (USD 60,000pt)

    ..........

    SO using AUD/USD 63c and with gold at USD 3,150 / AUD 5,000 and antimony at USD 55,000/AUD 87,300 pt (65% payable = AUD 56,700 pt) then YEAR 1:

    ■ REVENUE is gold AUD 206m (41,000 oz) and antimony is AUD 306m (5,400t) = $512m.

    ■ AISC per BLUE OCEAN report is AUD 116m

    ■ YEAR 1 NPBT is $396m / 430m shares = 92 cps.

    ■ YEAR 1 NBT of $396m ($33m per month) provides 5.25x proposed project loan of $75m (& less than 3 months payback).

    ■ Gold revenues provide a $90m surplus after meeting AISC of total gold and antimony produced.

    ...........

    ■ DFS will model LRVs NPV base case and provide a valuation at updated spot prices.

    ■ IF the base case values in the DFS use the spot values in today's presentation of USD 2,750 gold & USD 41,000pt antimony then you have a guide on a likely DFS outcome:

    ● NPV of AUD 1.1B ($2.55 per share);

    ● Cashflow of AUD 1.7B ($3.95 per share).

    ■ IF SPOT gold is USD 3,150 / antimony USD 55,000 with LRV concentrates payable at 65% are used then the NPV is likely AUD 1.7B plus ($3.95ps) and cash flow AUD 2.5B plus ($5.81ps).

    ■ These values are based on the current MRE and a 7 year minelife ... LRVs expectations are to extend the minelife & target high grade antimony.

    ■ LRV has the potential to surprise on the upside.

    ............

    ■ IF gold continues to deliver a minimum surplus of $90m pa then for every USD 5,000 increment in antimony prices is sustained for 12 months at USD/AUD 65c payable at 65% then this equates to an additional AUD 5,000pt net & on 5,400t this is AUD 27m per annum to the YEAR 1 NPBT of $396m.

    ■ SO by 2026 (YEAR 1) if antimony (full year average) is:

    ● USD 65k = + $54m to NPBT of $450m ($1.04ps)
    ● USD 75k = + $108m to NPBT of $504m ($1.17ps)
    ● USD 100k = + $243m to NPBT of $639m ($1.48ps)

    ■ Some antimony forecasters are showing a 25,000t shortfall in supply in 2025, 2026 & 2027 rising to 36,000t by 2030 & it would not surprise if antimony is USD 75kpt or higher by the time LRV is in production in 2026.

    ..........

    ■ LRVs DFS is going to tell us what we need to know and going forward the market will dictate the price of gold & antimony based on supply and demand factors.

    ■ LRV is uniquely positioned going forward ... US tariffs will have little or / no impact on LRV because antimony concentrate is to be sold at the mine gate. LRV are also looking to offtake for gold and this might benefit LRV if sold ex-mine.

    ........

    AIMHO/DYOR/GLTAH.

 
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