This slide is the same as that contained in the 121 Mining presentation of 3/2/25. My takeaway here is that the DFS will likely show antimony and gold at USD 2,750 per ounce and USD 41,000 per tonne as the baseline values. AUD / USD is shown at 63 cents.
DFS will likely see an upgrade the resource IF the cut-off grades are improved with the benefit of higher commodity price assumptions.
Slide 3 is interesting and shows:
■ Supply 7% of world's antimony requirements from 2026.
■ NPV is $1.1B, Cashflow is $1.7B PFS capex is $75m & payback is 7 months.
■ Only antimony mine to come online in next 4 years.
■ Record prices for gold (USD 3,100) and antimony (USD 60,000pt)
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SO using AUD/USD 63c and with gold at USD 3,150 / AUD 5,000 and antimony at USD 55,000/AUD 87,300 pt (65% payable = AUD 56,700 pt) then YEAR 1:
■ REVENUE is gold AUD 206m (41,000 oz) and antimony is AUD 306m (5,400t) = $512m.
■ AISC per BLUE OCEAN report is AUD 116m
■ YEAR 1 NPBT is $396m / 430m shares = 92 cps.
■ YEAR 1 NBT of $396m ($33m per month) provides 5.25x proposed project loan of $75m (& less than 3 months payback).
■ Gold revenues provide a $90m surplus after meeting AISC of total gold and antimony produced.
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■ DFS will model LRVs NPV base case and provide a valuation at updated spot prices.
■ IF the base case values in the DFS use the spot values in today's presentation of USD 2,750 gold & USD 41,000pt antimony then you have a guide on a likely DFS outcome:
● NPV of AUD 1.1B ($2.55 per share);
● Cashflow of AUD 1.7B ($3.95 per share).
■ IF SPOT gold is USD 3,150 / antimony USD 55,000 with LRV concentrates payable at 65% are used then the NPV is likely AUD 1.7B plus ($3.95ps) and cash flow AUD 2.5B plus ($5.81ps).
■ These values are based on the current MRE and a 7 year minelife ... LRVs expectations are to extend the minelife & target high grade antimony.
■ LRV has the potential to surprise on the upside.
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■ IF gold continues to deliver a minimum surplus of $90m pa then for every USD 5,000 increment in antimony prices is sustained for 12 months at USD/AUD 65c payable at 65% then this equates to an additional AUD 5,000pt net & on 5,400t this is AUD 27m per annum to the YEAR 1 NPBT of $396m.
■ SO by 2026 (YEAR 1) if antimony (full year average) is:
● USD 65k = + $54m to NPBT of $450m ($1.04ps)
● USD 75k = + $108m to NPBT of $504m ($1.17ps)
● USD 100k = + $243m to NPBT of $639m ($1.48ps)
■ Some antimony forecasters are showing a 25,000t shortfall in supply in 2025, 2026 & 2027 rising to 36,000t by 2030 & it would not surprise if antimony is USD 75kpt or higher by the time LRV is in production in 2026.
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■ LRVs DFS is going to tell us what we need to know and going forward the market will dictate the price of gold & antimony based on supply and demand factors.
■ LRV is uniquely positioned going forward ... US tariffs will have little or / no impact on LRV because antimony concentrate is to be sold at the mine gate. LRV are also looking to offtake for gold and this might benefit LRV if sold ex-mine.
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AIMHO/DYOR/GLTAH.
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(20min delay)