Ann: Presentation to AGM, page-19

Obviously neither of us thinks they deliberately set out to disappoint the market (if for some bizarre reason it was their goal, well played, good job), but that being the case it was a huge error of judgement on their part. One of the things I liked about management was that they seemed to underpromise and overdeliver. They completely shot that image to pieces.

I didn't set out to repeat myself, but if you quote me and ask for me to expand, don't complain if I oblige!

I don't think we're at the waist either. I said I sold at the waist (mid 20s), having missed the shoulder (around 30) in very rough terms. We're now lower than that, but I don't think trying to buy at the toe is generally a good strategy and it's certainly not a safe one, and it's only in absolute best case scenario that we're at the toe, but if it turns out that the toe is lower, which seems likely, it's probably going to be significantly lower, and there doesn't seem much chance that we're going to see a dramatic increase any time in a hurry, which you seem to agree with, so best reasonably likely case scenario we're going to fumble around 20c for some time, meaning there's plenty of time to wait for more data and get in at a similar price with zero risk in the mean time, and worst reasonably likely case scenario we'll see support fail which could easily result in a significant fall. Big potential loss, small potential gain, which doesn't seem a compelling situation to have your money tied up here.

Perhaps part of where we seem to disagree is that you are more looking at what you think the company's fundamentals are like, which as you acknowledge isn't likely to look good to the market for some time, and I'm taking a perspective heavily factoring in what the market thinks rather than what the reality of the fundamentals is. While that may seem 'wrong', the reality is that the price is set by the market which is determined by what the market thinks the situation is rather than what the situation actually is. Unless I have to make a decision now and I have no option to change my position for a long term, it makes more sense to act on what the market is going to do. Even if the market is 'wrong', if I correctly predict the price the market sets, I am 'right'. Obviously this is not relevant to a long term investor who is already holding and wants to hold for years and has an aversion to making any trades along the way, but obviously that's not my personal strategy. I don't really care why the price is going to go up or down; regardless of the reason, if it's going to go down I'd rather not be holding, and if it's going to go up, I'd like to be.