Ann: Presentation to AGM, page-9

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shaneshanes

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20/11/21

23:02

Post #: 57727946
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Originally posted by Sdaji: ↑

So... over 40% annual organic growth is their claim, they promised a $150M RRR by the end of FY21, but they think it's going to take until FY 2023 to reach $200M in revenue despite that FY23 figure including two years of acquisitions... crunch some numbers; these figures should be raising alarm bells. They're not even willing to call $200M for FY2023 'guidance' but merely an 'ambition'!

Even if there was zero acquisitional growth, their claimed organic growth figures alone should allow them to beat $200M in FY23 even if in the current year the total revenue was more than $10M *BELOW* the RRR guidance for the end of last FY! Considering they must surely be expecting *some* acquisitional growth, these figures simply don't add up!

I'm not surprised the share price dropped after all this hit the market and I am very glad I sold out in the mid 20s. I'm now actually more concerned by the fundamentals than I had been about the technicals or market sentiment. Everyone is trying to put a positive spin on things, but talk is cheap and the actual figures don't look good. It's clear why they didn't give guidance for this financial year; it would have either looked terrible or they'd fail to meet it.

I'm switching my sentiment from none to sell and I'm no longer expecting to be buying back in. I'll keep an open mind in case I've misinterpreted anything or anything changes, but I have serious concerns and I'm now thinking it's more likely for this to be a bad long term investment than a good one. Even if it bounces off the double bottom, I can't see it running too high, and after a weekend of the market going over what was said on Friday, I wouldn't be surprised to see support fail early in the week.

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so Sdaji,
if you take the 60% increase from q1 last year and extrapolate it through it seems to me to be over 150mil and that's not including latest loop or future acquisitions
what figure do you get and what do you base it on??

TNT Price at posting: 19.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Ann: Presentation to AGM, page-9

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