Below is my estimate. The margins might appear a bit slim at A$300-$400/t after-tax compared to the pricing being thrown around atm but it is long term and any additional margin in first couple of years I have assumed will be used to pay down A$140m debt + interest. If you can tell me a raw materials business that has run at >75% EBITDA margins throughout all economic cycles and over a 10+year stretch id love to hear of it (even my assumption is >50% margins over LOM)... EV revolution or not.
My numbers assume stage 2 expansions go ahead which I think could be at risk of further delays for AJM. But this probably offsets potential further value from exploration success which I haven’t included.
Just my view - I’m not saying my numbers are right - in fact I know they’ll be wrong.. but do your own research and valuation.
AJM Price at posting:
27.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
