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Without intending to be offensive my view about the SPAC talk is...

  1. 34 Posts.
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    Without intending to be offensive my view about the SPAC talk is delusional.

    I don't think re-rating has anything to do with being delisted as if they don't need to raise then the quarterly fluctuation because shareholders aren't happy shouldn't matter. If it can grow it will re-rate, if its worth something it will re-rate (eg being acquired). If anything suitor would be more likely to acquire the company now as shareholders would probably sell in heartbeat at a massive loss , heck id probably take a massive haircut if I was offered pre-announcement price (~6-7c) as at least I know its based on what the market was willing to pay and not being discounted for their stupidity.

    Not sure on whether a large shareholeder is behind it (other than Karl and Peter self serving ) - Well any large shareholder was buying at average prices above 20c - for instance FIL bought most of its holding above 23-35c. So theoretically if it was them they would need to see LVT achieve a sale well above 20c or believe that was very likely, not sure why they would buy again recently at prices above 10c (I think it was ~9m shares of their 69m holding... just to take a loss on their holding. so to force a delist means perhaps they have some sort of exit strategy but I feel its unlikely just doesn't seem that logical. I mean that implies they are confident of a 25c+ buyout... that implies getting it sold for an EV/ARR of 3.5x +.. BUT that's also implying their holding isn't diluted .. any capital raise right now would be at very unfavourable terms, price etc.

    Look at $4m that they have access to at 20c convertible note.... that seems like a great outcome right now. If its at 4c, which is probably too high as someone could offer them less, they would need to increase the shares on issue by 11%, so that implies that whoever pays for the company in reality needs to pay 11% more for FIL to come out even given they pay for the entire company . But these guys if left unchecked will probably raise right unto the $10m limit that OneVue placed on them meaning they could theoretically dilute everyone 30% odd.... so if in the example above FIL wants to get out at 25c, that would imply a market cap that went from 900m shares * 25x = $225 to $287m ..so they buyer is now paying in effect closer to 5x ARR if you get my drift a few years down the track..... so you need to factor in a few variables... dilutions, what the buyer is willing to pay.. etc

    5x EV/ARR for a company that isn't growing is delusional.

    1-2x EV/ARR is a possibility, but still a stretch (think CYCL was bought for 1.5x, other small ones were <1x).

    If they can achieve that now
    1x ARR = $65 + $13m cash - $6m loan = $72m~ = 8c

    So no I dont think FIL is behind it...






 
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