Radosin, While you are doing you calculations on the "capital raising share price", please let me know what "urea prices" you used in your DCF.

Here is a start help you.

Fitch Ratings Global Fertiliser Price Assumptions

	2022	2023		2024		2025		2026		Long-term
USD/tonne	Actual	Old	New	Old	New	Old	New	Old	New	Old	New
Urea – FOB Middle East (Granular)	633	500	350	350	300	270	270	260	260	260	260

"CRU expects exports to gradually return to 2019 levels by 2027. A faster return would increase downside to prices. There is further extra capacity in Egypt, Turkiye, Russia and Bangladesh expected in 2023-2024, after almost eight million tonnes was added in 2022, which will continue to weigh on prices in 2023. 14 Mar 2023"

Both companies forecast urea prices to be around USD260 in 2026-2027. That is AUD 390.

Pitt Street Research paper uses the following Urea Prices."– Urea Price: We have utilised urea pricing forecasts of CRU made available to us by NeuRizer over the next 3 years. Starting with A$372.2 in CY22 and assuming an average of 4% growth over time, but with growth significantly skewed over the first six years – reaching A$640.8 by CY28."

By then, NRZ will be at full capacity, and I have seen no credible evidence to the contrary.

NOTE: There is a difference between the P.S. Research paper's figures and the forecasters latest figures of around AUD250 per tonne.

That is a whopping $250 million per year to come off the bottom line, if my figures are correct. Over to you and anyone else interested.