we can't predict with absolute certainty, no one can forecast...

we can't predict with absolute certainty, no one can forecast the coal price hit 400/t including urea 1k/t, but in this matter i have to agree with NRZ CEO on his view on urea price. if the price goes down, NRZ will still survive but others won't (similar to current issue with Incitec). my other own opinion, there is a disconnect between urea price and gas price. if you look at gas price there is no centralised gas hub price that dictate global gas price, can we use henry hub gas price as a proxy? i don't think so. the relevant gas price will be the hub price in Asia. look at the current price gap between this two hub, why no arbitrage in there? with the current geopolitical and peak of globalisation, i think the commodities prices will increase in the future not to mention supply shock, dollar value. Unless we see a more NRZ type urea manufacturing capability (in this one i think we have a head start).