Another great announcement folks, another ticked box which we all knew was coming. The unknown to this point was patient numbers and we now have a figure to speculate about and discuss the revenues that will come.
THC is the first to go all Aussie from cultivation to patient supply "in-house". LGP is also supplying MC but are in partnerships and deals to bring their cultivation to market, much like CAN when they sort themselves out - but have not supplied any yet and no announcements have come about when they will.
Important to note from the announcement:
- Providing 6000 patients with MC products, 3000 from Bundy cultivation and 3000 from imported crude product. Currently working with other Aussie growers towards supply of all Aussie product which IMO, will then replace the need to import short term and hopefully be cheaper while supporting all Aussie partnerships.
- The elephant in the room here IMO, is that the TGA state how many Aussie patients need to be provided for and they have come up with the 6000 patient figure, i would think based on negotiation between the TGA and THC. Once this supply is fulfilled short term, THC will more than likely be able to enter the global export market as their Aussie obligations are filled. I dare say the 6000 patient figure will increase as more TGA approvals continue to come. It is expected to have approved 100,000 patients in the next 18-24 months.
- The real revenue will come from exports as the orders will be bulk IMO, and will see Southport really ramped up to create revenue. There are 370,000 patients to target in Canada with MC approval and the numbers are growing significantly through Europe and Asia which THC has stated that they will be targeting. The information about exports is yet to come as they have been waiting to fulfill the Aussie supply first and will now be able to apply certainty to any export deals knowing what they needed to supply in Australia first. These announcements will now be on way throughout the rest of 2020 and beyond. The Southport facility has the production capacity to supply MC products for 250,000 ongoing patients.
- When there is certainty in orders and the need to ramp up cultivation, we will see Eden farms come on board in a big way.
Possible revenue:
Average spend per patient $10 a day which i read somewhere.
THC revenue per patient per day = $4.50 (speculative amount)
6000 X $4.50 X 365 = $9,855,000 revenue p.a. on current patient amounts.
This will increase by $1,642,500 for every 1000 patients that are added and with 3,500 being added each month in Australia, this number might move significantly in the short term.
This is the critical step towards the real revenue. Aussie supply requirements first - and the ability to supply way more if the TGA requires more for Australians and then the international export deals...
Yippee!
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