good stuff mate but if he sells he gets diluted (sort off) as...

good stuff mate but if he sells he gets diluted (sort off) as his control is escaping from his hands. I think (my own view) is he does not want to get diluted to a point to lose his grip on ALK.
We are speculating here obviously but why would ALK need CR?
The only reason why ALK may need to do CR is m&a. I don't really see a way for ALK to try to develop NMPP on their own as such project will require around $2b of funding to be secured. I just don't see ALK being able to negotiate such funding - just too small and too asset poor with zero experience developing such large projects - in short no bank will fund it.

For ALK to make decent m&a deal they have about 4 choices regarding funding:

1. go into debt - by financing such deal via debt 100%. Not the best option as ALK will take lot of debt.

2. do CR - and for such deal (good quality acquisition) ALK will have to raise around $400 - around $100m-$150m for buying the company and around $200m-$300m to develop the project. That will dilute IG into oblivion and he won't allow it. But also not the best option in my view.

3. Combination of the two options - which may be the best option. But even that means IG to be diluted down to around 12% which will be very close to the blocking stake limit. He won't risk it as if he needs to sell more ALK shares to get access to liquidity then he could drop below 10%.

4. ALK offers shares to buy the target and then uses combination of debt and CR to fund the development - this option, like option 3, is good option but it means IG to be diluted. And I can't see him accepting it.



all my own views.