Can debate that till the cows come home - it’s well reported on...

Can debate that till the cows come home - it’s well reported on Hc that spot volumes aren’t huge.

But it doesn’t particularly matter - all that matters is where that spot price is, because it tends to form the basis for investment decisions and also offtake / longer term supply contracts.

Every lithium producer is trying to play chicken by avoiding C&M. Each producer thinks it won’t be them having to swallow their pride and shut up shop.

SYA are most likely for C&M.
Followed by MIN (at least one of their three) and LTR.

Australia and Canada are thrown around as tier 1 jurisdictions, which is a dated perception. Both are high cost, horrific permitting timelines and do little to support their miners thesedays.

Brazil, Chile and Argentina will be just fine at these levels. Canada and Australia clearly aren’t,

If I had to put my money on who blinks first, I’d say it will be MIN, SYA and then LTR. But then again, each of these companies could just as easily continue to operate with their blindfolds on pretending everything is just fine.

The most overlooked issue is that LTR hasn’t even started dumping large tonnage into the market yet and prices are already likely to be under $700/t by next week.

What happens when an additional 100kt starts being dumped every quarter from early 2025. LTR is (ironically enough) contributing to its own losses by adding to the supply glut.