LTR is not pretending everything is just fine. They have borrowed money to go through ramp up. Actually, any start up borrows money - make capital raises until they have enough income. That's real life and real business.
As you acknowledge, spot (and future) sales are marginals. Offtakes are not sold at spot prices, but on a formula based on spot prices. That is, necessarily different from spot prices (otherwise the formula had no sense), and necessarily above spot prices at current, low spot prices.
Regarding costs, it appears that Africa is above Australia on the cost curve (according to K. Brinsden and some analysts).
The most underlooked issue is that LTR has 90 % of their product already sold. Others will struggle to sell theirs at the market (spot??). So let's see who's going to go into C&M...
As in every growing market, new supply is needed to feed increasing demand.
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9 | 116456 | 0.825 |
3 | 46387 | 0.820 |
4 | 167788 | 0.815 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.850 | 22852 | 3 |
0.860 | 33576 | 5 |
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