UOS 0.00% 57.0¢ united overseas australia limited

Ann: Profit Advice- Year Ended 31 December 2016, page-35

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    Good points, but I don't think you've married up second order effects and relative share price.

    If Chinese property was to tank, taking Malaysian property along with it, what would be the drop in property prices? 20%? 30%?
    Now marry that up to what's on offer. What would the NTA per share be if property was to drop by 20-30%? Further, what opportunity would it offer current management given their long-term track record in finding real-estate to purchase?

    You can go one step further, and assign rough probabilities to each, then calculate the expected value of each scenario. I think you'll find it's "heads I win, tails I don't lose".
 
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