APO 0.00% $6.69 apn outdoor group limited

Ann: Profit Guidance, page-30

  1. 985 Posts.
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    And yet the sell-off continues. Every time you think it might start to run because there's a new fund buying/spruiking (Norges, Aitken), the sell side pressure from exits is more than enough to offset.

    Things to like:
    - Top line growth - outdoor share of ad market is growing due to population growth, digital mix switch, outdoor not susceptible to audience fragmentation in the way that TV/radio/newspapers are
    - Static to digital conversion has a long way to go for APO
    - Solid balance sheet
    - Growing dividend
    - Undemanding valuation relative to market and peers, when adjusted for growth
    - Sector leader
    - Industry revenue data is released every month, which gives far better insight into performance between reporting periods compared to most other sectors
    - Solid sell-side broker support, with majority buy recommendations (though this doesn't seem to have swayed the buy side to pile in of late!)

    Things not to like:
    - Media is definitely on the nose as a general rule - the ASX 300 Media sub index is down 18% in the last 3 months
    - High share price volatility
    - Now that it has upgraded earnings and the benefit from that has washed through, there are no real catalysts before Feb 2017
    - No real consolidation / takeover opportunity given high market share and lack of synergies between outdoor and other media
    - Management credibility at a low ebb

    I'm back in at ~$5.20
 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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