Thanks, neoteric, for a very useful analysis. It caused me to do some more detailed analysis of my own:
Prediction for FY17 2nd Half:
Starting from FY16 2nd Half revenue of $27.4M, assuming a 20% revenue increase (conservative given the much higher rates of growth of 25% to 75% in 1st Half) at the same margin of 13.9% (also conservative, given growing revenue on largely fixed cost base), leads to a 2nd Half NPAT of $4.5M and EPS of 4.9 cents. Objective Trapeze, purchased in March 2016, should alone contribute revenue of > $3M and operating profit of > $1M in FY17, compared to an operating profit of only $0.2M in FY16.
For the full FY17, the above assumptions lead to revenue of $62.8M, NPAT of $8.25M and EPS of 9.0 cents.
Financial Analysis:
Using a line of best fit, EPS has doubled from 12H1 to 17H1, a period of only 5 years.
EPS consistency between the two halves has improved over the last year.
Growth appears to be accelerating, with the last three data points all exceeding the line of best fit.
NPAT margins have increased to over 13%, and should continue to rise as revenue rises.
Recurrent revenue is growing rapidly to 62% of revenue.
Objective has been able to fund its research, acquisitions and growth internally, while paying growing dividends and reducing issued shares by around 25% since FY11.
Based on my prediction for FY17, OCL is on an ROE of 45.9% and forward P/E of 22.9, very reasonable for a company doubling EPS in 5 years, with increasing consistency and growth rate.
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