So, the company revised upwards its forecast for H1 underlying...

So, the company revised upwards its forecast for H1 underlying EBITDA for the 3rd time since October.
It went from "in excess of 20 m in Oct" to 23-25 m in Nov and 26-27 m now.
Excluding Jobkeeper, H1 underlying EBITDA is expected to be between 20.2 m and 21.2 m.
This is to compare with 9.9 m for H1 20 (- 5 % yoy) and 27.6 m for the whole year of FY 20 (same impact of Jobkeeper than for H1 21).

During H1 21, everything went in the right direction for them :
- strong sales, benefiting from a significant improvement of their market,
- gross margin increase, as demand exceeded supply for new and used motorycles and wholesale accessories,
- "disciplined cost control".
- improvement of financial performance across all divisions.

Like before, the company is cautious on guidance.
It makes sense as H2 won't have the benefit of Jobkeeper anymore, will face a higher basis of comparison (end H2) and prices which could come back to a more normal level, as supply catch up on demand.
Anyway, no reason to think that H2 would be bad as volume are probably still doing well (more stock available), gross margins have a good chance to remain elevated (ex. impact of high AUD), while cost discipline may also continue.

MTO remains a cheap way to play consumer discretionary at the moment.
Free cash flow yield of 14 % based on FY 20 and probably more in FY 21 (H1 EBITDA already reached the level of the full year of FY 20).
And this calculation is done with the net debt at 30.6.20 (35.7 m) which has probably improved a lot during H1 21 given the level of EBITDA.