Is the issue that mgmt did not inform the market in Jan of the lower FY24 guidance?
If so, that seems a little premature especially if their guidance was driven to some extent whether the drop off in 2Q24 extended into Jan (and that does not seem to be the case).
Also, I can't see where they provided guidance to 1H24 apart from the 25th of Oct where Jamie indicated that 1H results will have a stronger skew than 1/3rd (no specifics, but actuals seem to have come in along those lines.......50m NPAT will be >1/3rd of $125m
As for US, I'm not sure where you are seeing 60%, but 1H24 revenues were up 3% and underlying EBITDA was up 23% and I suspect that is to do with clients using Lightning OBT which would explain the improved EBITDA margins.......yes the 40m EBITDA they seem to have included in guidance seems ambitious, but they highlighted the thinking behind this.
If anything, the risk seems to be in Europe......they have not specified, but clearly the margin is driven by 'humanitarian work' and the big question I have is that this unlike the corporate business is incredibly lumpy.........every other region has margins of 12-30% vs Europe at 64% and I would expect that to dissapear at some point, and I wonder what other business can replace this given Jamie still needs to grow 15% pa.
As for analysts........take it up with them. I'm sure the business are given them access beyond what retail see, but they are big boys and should exercise some balance if you want people to take you seriously(and frankly, why does anyone take them seriously to start with)
CTD Price at posting:
$15.67 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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