I actually disagree Tugger. There are many companies that were utilising their buy-backs at 52 week highs (KGN and JHX), which reversed the direction of their stock price as they went hard on their Buy-backs. For stocks with lower liquidity, this makes even more sense if they apply it with technical price zones of support. Given the aforementioned companies executed their buy-backs at all price stages, this clearly results in the purchase price NOT being the cheapest rate going, but with the result of forcing upward momentum in the right direction. Thus the buy-back can and should also be utilised to create or enhance technical support zones. KGN achieved at least a 100% upside, with worse fundamentals than CTD. Failure to actually employ the buyback implies that management actually believe the shares:
1. Will go lower
2. Aren't worth what they are now to warrant the buyback (creating shorting favourtism) and a further downward spiral.
3. Were utilising the buy-back notification for propaganda. A lack of follow through supports this notion.
It's all well and good to boast of a large buybacks announcement, but if the buyback isn't actively purchasing on market right now (which it appears to recognise), CTD faces breaks on it's critical 3 monthly chart support level, which will lead to significant downside.
Given one of the directors bought decent chunk in at a higher level, it appears conflict on the board, regarding how and when to actually utilise the buy-back. CTD has also performed far worse than others like FLT, WEB, HLO on a YOY basis, despite the results being fairly positive. Seems to be a reasonable buy at these levels for a more long term hold. The primary downside risk to CTD is the rhetoric of global travel demand decreasing with the subsequent increase in wars. Even with this 'risk', if the fundamentals remain strong, with dividends continuing, then the effect of sentiment vs market noise will be unwarranted for those who take up the buy opportunity at these levels.
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