AAU 33.3% 0.4¢ antilles gold limited

Ann: Progress on Scoping Study for La Demajagua Mine, Cuba, page-51

  1. 476 Posts.
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    I was in STM through their porphyry discovery at Bramaderos and El Palmar only a year ago.

    Everything went slowly for ages and the share price didn't move as they punched several holes into Bramaderos over 12 months, producing several long 0.4g/t Au and 0.15% Cu intercepts. It looked plainly obvious that the share price was going to take off eventually, but the share price just drifted for ages.

    Then all of a sudden, it went bunta and flew from $30m market cap to >$150m in a few days. The catalyst was some holes with better grade plus Malcolm Norris leveraging his earlier discovery of Apala (Sol Gold) to make out like he'd found another one. For long term followers, the sudden change in fortunes was no surprise, but the amount of time it took to get that bounce even turned some knowledgeable holders into sellers.

    Such are share price cycles. When the share price is going down, it goes down because it's going down. When it's going up, it keeps going up because it's going up. What a stupid system, but that's what we've got.

    I still think that a favourable settlement would be the strongest catalyst right now. Currently the market doesn't think we have enough cash to do anything and is assigning no value to any of our assets and giving us only a 40% of getting the full payout.

    With $40m bucks in the bank, all of a sudden La Demajague mine is de-risked so we trade at cash value of $40 mil plus ~15% of the La Demajague NPV (perhaps $40 mil), so that makes $80 mil market cap and then some value for El Pilar to round it up to $100mil market cap. Could happen over night if we get a win and payout.

    If we hit a great porphyry intercept, which I'm betting we will do, then the outcome is unpredictable. Share price might take off, but it might not until the agreement with Cuba is done and the arbitration delivers funds. Who knows?

 
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