re: Ann: Progress Report - Commencement of Dr... I think the SP is sitting at low pending decision from Noble whether they would like to take up the strategic JV at 70c per share. This is due on 23 March as re-mentioned in the statement today.
Personally, I think that we have a 70%-80% chance for this deal to go through, despite the SP is trading at 15% discount from the offer price.
Here are my reasoning:
1. Hunnu coal halted yesterday and is rumoured to have secured a strategic investment Peabody at 1.60. This is 30% premium to the closing price of 1.24. This shows things are really heating up in the mongolian coal sector.
2. Noble Group - announced a private placement raising USD $500M and an outstanding Q4 (200% increase in revenue). During the interview they specifically mentioned they want to acquire more assets in Mongolia Coal. They are cash up and ready to confirm Xanadu as their second investment!
3. Xanadu at 70c represents a market cap of only 118M compared to AKM 370M and HUN 340M(assuming 1.60). That gives us an upside of 100%-200% in revaluation? Most likely Noble already know the true valuation of Xanadu.
This is only my opinion, DYOR.
Ann: Progress Report - Commencement of Drilling P, page-3
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