LMG 7.25% 3.2¢ latrobe magnesium limited

Ann: Progress Report, page-179

  1. 1,860 Posts.
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    Best of luck Ken. I am also confident that we will see some upward movement however the residual share price for LMG has considerable uncertainty. I think we will see the share price become quite volatile with uplifts on announcements and significant falls in between. Personally, I agree the best strategy is a long term hold - putting it in the bottom draw and bring it out in 2027 when the Malaysia plant should get to production.

    Macro-economic indicators are not looking healthy and it looks like inflation has lifted it's head which will culminate in interest rate rise and money tightening. Couple that with a Government that seems to have some really mixed up priorities obsessed with climate change, zero carbon, treaties and ARKUS sucking in an enourmous amounts of money while families struggling to put food on the table and have a roof over their head - this ultimately culminates in the marginalised moving into poverty, societal fracturing and marked increase in crime rates. I have not seen it this bad since the late 80's when families were dragged out of their homes while banks reposessed assets and interest rates hit 18%.

    All that said, getting back to LMG we should see some share price movements from:
    Phase 1
    • Completed construction and commissioning
    • Announcement of MgO quality, extraction efficiency and SCM quality
    • Roaster completion and commissioning with ignots production next quarter
    • Announcement of revenue due to MgO sales and SCM sales
    They have been very silent here on the SCM. They will have to store it somewhere and not sure how much space they have on-site or how much their permit allows them to store on-site. Unless they have a buyer lined up I'd like to know what are they going to do with the SCM from the demo plant.

    Phase 2
    • GHD report for the mine planning work on the Yallourn landfill due 4th quarter
    I don't think phase 2 has received much attention as currently it's "all hands on deck" for phase 1. It's a little dissappointing that with 7 people on the Board we don't have a couple of them batting to get the approvals through State Govt. Once phase 1 gets to production, DP needs to focus on Phase 2 (and get some of the non-exec Directors to help out) and let Senior Management handle operation of Phase 1. Peter Church will call him in if and when he needs him for Phase 3.

    Phase 3

    • PFS-B study for Malaysia plant start next quarter (due 2nd Oct-Dec quarter next year)
    • Confirmation of land application success current quarter.
    • Signing of non-binding MoU's for Phase 3 current quarter.

    Some will play the short game of buying and selling between these events - I don't need those sort of palpatations these days however each to their own.
    I am a realist so it will be a roller coaster - we may as well strap ourselves in and enjoy the ride!

    My 2c worth.
 
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