First time poster at EVG but been holding for years. Managed to average down but low liquidity is a killer at the moment.
While discount rate used seems low (in current market) even if that is @10% the NPV would at least still be double/triple current market cap.
Probably only concern at the moment is working capital:
1. Sales won't happen till Q3'24 and depending when it is shipped out to Europe could only see cash inflow Q4'24. Sea freight from India to Europe will take between 4-6weeks. Would be good if they can get a portion of it in cash upfront unlikely.
2. To ramp up production they would need to buy concentrate/raw materials to 150t/month. Any ideas what this would look like from costing and recovery perspective? Apologies if its already in all the materials presented. If we assume 100% recovery would indicate 900t (for Q3'24-Q4'24) raw materials (lets say at A$1000/t) = A$0.9m or A$0.45m for EVG's share (though highly dependant on concentrate price)
3. Q1'24 cash sits at ~A$2.5m, Q1'24 cash used in operating was A$.44m <- and this was before production start/ramp up, I imagine would increase meaningfully in Q2-Q3'24.
Gut feel is if they want to expand production rapidly to capitalise on demand they might need a cap raise to start procurement on those longer lead time items. Different story if they could get some type of working cap debt funding to not dilute shareholders!
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