“I amjacked to the tits” (quote from “the big short”) about this announcement and Ifeel quite betrayed that management has now had two opportunities to ensure LTRis fully financed to production and has failed miserably both times. We wereentitled to believe this was entirely resolved by now.
Equity wasraised in November ‘23 (placement @ $1.80) and I’m sure those institutions willbe as annoyed as me or more so!.... That equity would have been required by thebanks then to support the finance package so why wasn’t the documentation taskcompleted, or at least made binding upon the banks, as part of the equityraising.It’s typical of banks to keep delaying and even obfuscating when they feel there might be undue risk.
Then therewas the situation before October when ALB pulled their offer after Hancock tooktheir major stake.I commented then that management had blotted their copy book by not ensuring all required finance was on foot to accommodate cost overruns etc, but they appear to have kind of foolishly relied on the ALB bid being approved and the takeover happening. What resulted was the then described “emergency” funding package put in place over a 4 day trading halt. The funding accompanied a revised and expanded production schedule. The very production schedule increase that is now being withdrawn. Shareholders were taken to the cleaners compared to the takeover bid price, but fortunately the raising only resulted in about 10% dilution.
Now “we arewhere we are” and another major Australian critical minerals company is in theunenviable position of being at the mercy of short sellers, and the Chinesebureaucracy scores a victory through exercising its control of that market tobolster its EV manufacturers towards gaining the leading position in thatmarket too.Meanwhile regulators here turn a blind eye to the situation and flatly refuse to regulate short selling in equity markets here.One day they will wake up but it will be too late.
Rant over….
What is inprospect in my opinion is a takeover bid from Hancock at a fire sale price.When(?), “I don’t know”, but obviously after 11 February.In the meantime, I think that prospect is all that is keeping our share price even where it is.
There wereencouraging comments from TO during the call this morning that the “house view”of future pricing is more sanguine than that of Wood McKenzie, and he furtherremarked that cycles can turn very quickly. In my post of Saturday I mentionedthat volatile market conditions will make it more difficult to gain financialsupport for projects, but I did not for a second think that would be us!
There isevery reason to be nervous about our prospects of finalising the debt packagein my opinion, and I will not be surprised if more equity is sought to fill anygap…. As much as I hate to say it, I would rather that than drifting alongwithout financing in place, hoping for the best. Then we could get on withbusiness.
Regards
DF
(20min delay)