LTR 0.00% 91.0¢ liontown resources limited

Ann: Project and Funding Update, page-563

  1. 34,330 Posts.
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    Altura was caught by a very unfortunate timing, borrowed overseas secured notes at 14-15% high interest rate in 2017 when last lithium price cycle peaked. The notes matured in three years. The note holders did seem very supportive, waived their covenants until 2020, then refinanced and increased the amount up to $300m. At that time, AJM market cap was less than $200m.

    Currently LTR market cap is $2.2B, gross debt is $300m which replaced Ford facility, cash $515m which is enough to complete construction. They want to have additional around $200m to get positive cashflow. Also cutting costs is under consideration. It will depend on how the new package will be, in a worse situation, they might have to raise some capital. The interesting part is, last announcement, they will update to the market by 31 March 2024, still have two months to go. Bear in mind, Chinese new year is on 10 February 2024. If lithium follows iron ore price cycle as I believe. Iron ore price bottomed (US$39/t) in early December 2015, bounced hard just after Chinese new year on 8 February 2016, recovered to US$71/t in April 2016, hit US$95/t in February 2017. (where Goldman Sachs forecast US$38/t for 2016).

    Gina last big purchase was 11 October 2023, for $3/share.
    In about two weeks time, from 11 February 2024, Gina is free to do whatever she wants.
    Any assistance offers to LTR?
    Current share price is 92c Vs her last paid price of $3, the 80.1% of the LTR is currently valued at $1.8B. As she paid $1.3B for 19.9% of the LTR, Will she be interested in buying the remaining 80.1%?
    Don't forget she and SQM are currently acquiring 60% of Andover project (very early stage) for $1.7B.

    All imo.
 
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