Here's the full list of global lithium supply/mines (credited to...

Here's the full list of global lithium supply/mines (credited to few Chinese analysts, I translated into English version, please correct if there's any errors),
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/71671249/single

Chinese lithium carbonate price was in a spotlight over last few months as its spot and futures price have been smashed down dramatically with massive volume.

I think China has learnt a lesson from iron ore price, they were not in control of iron ore price, has to pay a premium price for importing hundreds of millions tons of iron ore from Australia and Brazil. They set up lithium futures pricing earlier and influence contract pricing.

Chinese lithium carbonate price hit the low of around CNY 87,000/t in early December 2023, now stablising around CNY 95,000 - 100,000 per ton since then. If following the iron ore cycle, it should start to bounce next month as Chinese new year holiday ends. Also it's noted the March quarter is seasonally weak demand for car sales. BUT CPCA estimates January NEV sales in China will be around 800k units, up over 140%, obviously lower than the December month as seasonal.




Here's my own calculation for Chinese spot lithium carbonate price to convert 6% Li2O spodumene concentrate price.
At currently Chinese spot price of around ~95,000/t, implied SC6 (CIF) price of US$980/ton.
To get CATL lepidolite production cost level, SC6 price needs to be at least US$1,447/ton.
SO it's obvious, why I believe Woodmac forecast is unrealistic.

All imo.