Reflecting on the analyst reports from 2016 to 2021, it's quite amusing to consider their predictions regarding lithium prices. None of them foresaw the surge to over $5000 per ton for the period of 2021-2023. I believe their collective inaccurate and incompetent analyses significantly contributed to this price spike. Their reports likely deterred financiers from investing in new projects, leading to a shortage of supply.
Then, during 2021-2023, we observed a drastic shift as financiers eagerly invested in numerous lithium projects, rendering the analysts' earlier predictions irrelevant. Now, these analysts are once again projecting extremely low lithium prices, and financiers are paying attention to them (again), potentially setting the stage for another bull run.
If this trend continues, we can expect alternating periods of very high and very low lithium prices throughout the decade. This presents a lucrative opportunity for individual investors who recognize the pattern in these 'professional' reports and their often unrealistic research paths.
For instance, consider the reaction of Rodney and Howard in the video below, as Jordan from FastMarkets discusses lithium prices. Their expressions, especially Rodney's, suggest skepticism about FastMarket's prediction of prices stabilizing at $1100 per ton until 2029, questioning the credibility of such forecasts. This is FastMarket's predictions, $1100/t until 2029 - are they snorting the same stuff Woodmac is using?
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