Over the years, I found Canaccord is not bad at lithium spodumene concentrate price forecast. They have been sticky their long term SC6 at US$1,500/t for last crazy spike.
Their cost estimates are conservative, which is good for readers, imo.
They had a higher estimates of capex and opex for Liontown before last update in September 2023, credit to them. They estimated AZS' Andover capex to be $1B, operation cost to be US$538/t, comparable to LTR's updated costs of US$590/t. The updated costs are released after the underground contract awarded.
SQM and Gina are currently buying 60% of the Andover project (around 5 years away from the production) for $1.7B, valuing the whole project at $2.8B.
LTR, currently market cap $2.2B, including spending $1B to develop and build the mine, if less the $1B development costs/capex, LTR is currently valued at $1.5B (added back $300m debt).
So more advantage stage LTR is only valued at $1.5B Vs early stage Andover at $2.8B.
Let's look forward, current LTR cash reserve is sufficient to complete the construction, valuation to construction completion is $2.5B; 100% of the Andover project is valued at $2.8B before construction, adds $1B capex, valuation to construction completion is $3.8B;
LTR $2.5B Vs Andover $3.8B.
More advanced, few years ahead, but valuation is 52% less.
Always DYOR, all imo.
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