I have not seen a brokers report on ewc for years.Here are my...

I have not seen a brokers report on ewc for years.

Here are my numbers - ignore the dates -> unbelievably everything is delayed.

The assumption was that one 500k train was up for 3months by june 14 and that 2x 500k trains were up for the whole of the 2015 year. I used a $10 mmbtu LNG price (should be closer to $15).

Looking back -> I was looking for $61m EBITDA in 06/13-> it came in at $56m. The difference was explained by lower generation, and thus lower gas use. I expected that they would get away most of the electricity they could produce -> but they couldn't so instead of producing 17mmbtu of gas, they produced 14mmbtu, and instead of producing 1875 gwh (because the new generation units were also delayed) they only produced less than the take of pay minimum of 1340 gwhr ie 1314gwh.

Nonetheless running 1m tonne of LNG at $10mmbtu adds about $300m to the EBITDA at $10 mmbtu. At $15mmbtu, this should add $450m and make total EBITDA about $570m.

The eLNG setup should take up the slack on the power supply so the generation should be fully utilised.