Certainly is fascinating now that more data is coming out, a few interesting morsels
During the shut in full pressure recovery occurred, how rapidly we don't know, but full pressure is more than enough to expect natural flow. In the current setup with 1100 psi at the wellhead the implied differential pressure is around 2500 psi between pore pressure and bottom of well bore.
Imbibition will have reduced the expected 30% flowback required and is supported by the first kick being reported already. Around 5% of the frack fluid is held in the fractures, these being the wider flow channels held open by the proppants. The remaining 95% is in the micro fractures and pores of the formation, the pores and micro fractures are highly resistant to flow whilst water logged. As 88e has indicated a substantial portion of the micro fractures need to clear water before the surface area contact is sufficient to yield up true flow rates. The 2500 psi DP needs to be available right at the surface of the micro fractures, rather than spent on traversing a water blocked micro fracture on the pathway to the larger propped fractures.
All up including the imbibition and pressure recovery 7 weeks, 88e have been flow testing for about 11 weeks (77 days). In that time 4800 barrels of frack fluid have been recovered, so an approximate flow of 62 barrels per day. If this is taken as a sustainable rate prior to kick off/transition to hydrocarbon flow, the probability of achieving the 100 to 150/pd barrels of oil to be economic looks good.
88E Price at posting:
3.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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